A Recession Warning Reverses, but the Damage May Be Done

The yield curve, an
indicator from the bond market just a few months ago set off alarms
about the risk of a recession. Now it has gone back to normal, and that
signal has been met with relief in the markets. But
as far as the economy is concerned, it might not matter. Once the yield
curve has predicted a recession, one usually follows even if that
signal changes later.